FRICTIONLESS MODEL
The signal before costs
Monthly rebalancing with fractional positions and no commissions. Useful as an upper bound—not as a promise.
THE RESULT, AFTER CASH ADDED
Congress versus the index.
Drag across the chart—or use the date control—to inspect portfolio value and cumulative profit at every monthly observation.
Ending frictionless profit $17,897.66Ending minimum-trade profit $14,912.55Ending SPY profit $8,206.74
The tighter vertical scale shows cumulative profit—not account balance—so the gap versus SPY remains visible. Historical model, not a forecast. Includes $3,000 initial cash and $100 monthly additions ($9,900 total) from 2021-01-01 to 2026-09-25.
View accessible monthly data table
| Date | Frictionless value | Frictionless profit | Minimum-trade value | Minimum-trade profit | SPY value | SPY profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2021 | $3,100.00 | $0.00 | $3,095.15 | $-4.85 | $3,100.00 | $0.00 |
| Feb 2021 | $3,153.57 | $-46.43 | $3,142.10 | $-57.90 | $3,262.54 | $62.54 |
| Mar 2021 | $3,579.83 | $279.83 | $3,529.17 | $229.17 | $3,478.31 | $178.31 |
| Apr 2021 | $3,744.08 | $344.08 | $3,685.62 | $285.62 | $3,688.50 | $288.50 |
| May 2021 | $4,029.34 | $529.34 | $3,932.19 | $432.19 | $3,950.46 | $450.46 |
| Jun 2021 | $4,431.46 | $831.46 | $4,336.59 | $736.59 | $4,064.34 | $464.34 |
| Jul 2021 | $4,691.87 | $991.87 | $4,578.99 | $878.99 | $4,282.19 | $582.19 |
| Aug 2021 | $4,727.82 | $927.82 | $4,611.54 | $811.54 | $4,453.42 | $653.42 |
| Sep 2021 | $4,954.12 | $1,054.12 | $4,802.58 | $902.58 | $4,698.04 | $798.04 |
| Oct 2021 | $5,001.79 | $1,001.79 | $4,860.65 | $860.65 | $4,629.90 | $629.90 |
| Nov 2021 | $5,341.03 | $1,241.03 | $5,072.15 | $972.15 | $5,004.99 | $904.99 |
| Dec 2021 | $5,083.51 | $883.51 | $4,897.73 | $697.73 | $5,001.20 | $801.20 |
| Jan 2022 | $5,370.93 | $1,070.93 | $5,105.49 | $805.49 | $5,421.90 | $1,121.90 |
| Feb 2022 | $5,299.75 | $899.75 | $5,071.01 | $671.01 | $5,240.88 | $840.88 |
| Mar 2022 | $5,243.58 | $743.58 | $5,059.59 | $559.59 | $5,075.10 | $575.10 |
| Apr 2022 | $5,714.74 | $1,114.74 | $5,537.97 | $937.97 | $5,462.47 | $862.47 |
| May 2022 | $5,641.24 | $941.24 | $5,485.06 | $785.06 | $5,098.87 | $398.87 |
| Jun 2022 | $6,007.55 | $1,207.55 | $5,837.86 | $1,037.86 | $5,138.71 | $338.71 |
| Jul 2022 | $5,541.74 | $641.74 | $5,608.49 | $708.49 | $4,903.69 | $3.69 |
| Aug 2022 | $6,142.85 | $1,142.85 | $6,086.19 | $1,086.19 | $5,383.52 | $383.52 |
| Sep 2022 | $5,438.99 | $338.99 | $5,365.23 | $265.23 | $5,295.45 | $195.45 |
| Oct 2022 | $5,105.61 | $-94.39 | $5,169.77 | $-30.23 | $5,017.36 | $-182.64 |
| Nov 2022 | $5,431.62 | $131.62 | $5,369.19 | $69.19 | $5,362.47 | $62.47 |
| Dec 2022 | $6,028.02 | $628.02 | $5,946.83 | $546.83 | $5,781.28 | $381.28 |
| Jan 2023 | $5,544.83 | $44.83 | $5,464.30 | $-35.70 | $5,529.17 | $29.17 |
| Feb 2023 | $6,437.46 | $837.46 | $6,364.71 | $764.71 | $6,064.45 | $464.45 |
| Mar 2023 | $6,311.21 | $611.21 | $6,291.72 | $591.72 | $5,927.37 | $227.37 |
| Apr 2023 | $6,581.79 | $781.79 | $6,569.54 | $769.54 | $6,294.33 | $494.33 |
| May 2023 | $6,669.50 | $769.50 | $6,670.51 | $770.51 | $6,464.17 | $564.17 |
| Jun 2023 | $6,855.54 | $855.54 | $6,894.00 | $894.00 | $6,662.33 | $662.33 |
| Jul 2023 | $7,429.72 | $1,329.72 | $7,349.23 | $1,249.23 | $7,135.37 | $1,035.37 |
| Aug 2023 | $7,697.57 | $1,497.57 | $7,553.02 | $1,353.02 | $7,439.40 | $1,239.40 |
| Sep 2023 | $7,570.95 | $1,270.95 | $7,334.57 | $1,034.57 | $7,453.19 | $1,153.19 |
| Oct 2023 | $7,411.92 | $1,011.92 | $7,171.59 | $771.59 | $7,183.62 | $783.62 |
| Nov 2023 | $7,732.25 | $1,232.25 | $7,462.86 | $962.86 | $7,205.44 | $705.44 |
| Dec 2023 | $8,292.24 | $1,692.24 | $7,942.75 | $1,342.75 | $7,926.67 | $1,326.67 |
| Jan 2024 | $8,729.83 | $2,029.83 | $8,190.23 | $1,490.23 | $8,293.71 | $1,593.71 |
| Feb 2024 | $8,894.38 | $2,094.38 | $8,322.91 | $1,522.91 | $8,684.11 | $1,884.11 |
| Mar 2024 | $9,099.20 | $2,199.20 | $8,537.99 | $1,637.99 | $9,203.94 | $2,303.94 |
| Apr 2024 | $9,369.11 | $2,369.11 | $8,848.54 | $1,848.54 | $9,500.14 | $2,500.14 |
| May 2024 | $9,146.76 | $2,046.76 | $8,625.35 | $1,525.35 | $9,203.33 | $2,103.33 |
| Jun 2024 | $9,725.60 | $2,525.60 | $9,105.04 | $1,905.04 | $9,808.24 | $2,608.24 |
| Jul 2024 | $9,899.17 | $2,599.17 | $9,340.96 | $2,040.96 | $10,266.88 | $2,966.88 |
| Aug 2024 | $10,237.98 | $2,837.98 | $9,602.21 | $2,202.21 | $10,323.02 | $2,923.02 |
| Sep 2024 | $10,303.96 | $2,803.96 | $9,595.40 | $2,095.40 | $10,595.44 | $3,095.44 |
| Oct 2024 | $10,883.66 | $3,283.66 | $10,137.28 | $2,537.28 | $11,046.35 | $3,446.35 |
| Nov 2024 | $11,839.93 | $4,139.93 | $11,066.86 | $3,366.86 | $11,193.36 | $3,493.36 |
| Dec 2024 | $12,389.88 | $4,589.88 | $11,564.37 | $3,764.37 | $11,932.18 | $4,132.18 |
| Jan 2025 | $12,119.54 | $4,219.54 | $11,400.09 | $3,500.09 | $11,695.69 | $3,795.69 |
| Feb 2025 | $12,262.13 | $4,262.13 | $11,444.18 | $3,444.18 | $12,058.36 | $4,058.36 |
| Mar 2025 | $12,121.41 | $4,021.41 | $11,351.29 | $3,251.29 | $11,875.95 | $3,775.95 |
| Apr 2025 | $12,066.98 | $3,866.98 | $11,309.77 | $3,109.77 | $11,546.45 | $3,346.45 |
| May 2025 | $11,952.94 | $3,652.94 | $11,231.02 | $2,931.02 | $11,594.99 | $3,294.99 |
| Jun 2025 | $12,822.75 | $4,422.75 | $11,801.79 | $3,401.79 | $12,405.88 | $4,005.88 |
| Jul 2025 | $13,753.27 | $5,253.27 | $12,420.83 | $3,920.83 | $13,066.12 | $4,566.12 |
| Aug 2025 | $13,798.72 | $5,198.72 | $12,455.27 | $3,855.27 | $13,252.21 | $4,652.21 |
| Sep 2025 | $14,172.18 | $5,472.18 | $12,859.67 | $4,159.67 | $13,747.61 | $5,047.61 |
| Oct 2025 | $15,411.58 | $6,611.58 | $13,937.74 | $5,137.74 | $14,492.48 | $5,692.48 |
| Nov 2025 | $16,461.94 | $7,561.94 | $14,790.47 | $5,890.47 | $14,915.30 | $6,015.30 |
| Dec 2025 | $15,632.44 | $6,632.44 | $14,091.11 | $5,091.11 | $14,948.29 | $5,948.29 |
| Jan 2026 | $15,604.38 | $6,504.38 | $14,091.36 | $4,991.36 | $15,156.38 | $6,056.38 |
| Feb 2026 | $16,218.38 | $7,018.38 | $14,599.78 | $5,399.78 | $15,527.93 | $6,327.93 |
| Mar 2026 | $16,402.76 | $7,102.76 | $14,710.26 | $5,410.26 | $15,426.29 | $6,126.29 |
| Apr 2026 | $15,670.16 | $6,270.16 | $14,103.88 | $4,703.88 | $14,866.64 | $5,466.64 |
| May 2026 | $18,609.41 | $9,109.41 | $16,765.33 | $7,265.33 | $16,450.72 | $6,950.72 |
| Jun 2026 | $20,379.33 | $10,779.33 | $18,264.57 | $8,664.57 | $17,415.66 | $7,815.66 |
| Jul 2026 | $21,079.19 | $11,379.19 | $18,771.31 | $9,071.31 | $17,266.35 | $7,566.35 |
| Aug 2026 | $21,594.49 | $11,794.49 | $19,227.63 | $9,427.63 | $17,642.10 | $7,842.10 |
| Sep 2026 | $22,289.45 | $12,389.45 | $19,875.24 | $9,975.24 | $17,837.80 | $7,937.80 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | $27,797.66 | $17,897.66 | $24,812.55 | $14,912.55 | $18,106.74 | $8,206.74 |
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What the three lines mean.
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MINIMUM-TRADE MODEL
What a small account can execute
Applies the order floor, modeled IBKR commissions and slippage. Small trades can be skipped when costs overwhelm them.
SPY BENCHMARK
The simplest alternative
The same starting cash and monthly contribution invested in SPY. No strategy deserves credit without a fair benchmark.
From filing room to portfolio
Less noise. More accounting.
Disclosures report ranges, not exact trade values. Capitol Ledger uses each range midpoint, admits a trade only after its filing became public, and reconstructs a synthetic long-only House portfolio. The result is a repeatable research model—not a claim about any lawmaker’s exact holdings.
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Purchases and sales update the synthetic portfolio. - 03Translate
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