How long after a stock trade does Congress disclose it?
Understand the congressional disclosure deadline, the gap between trading and publication, and what that means when you read a stock-trading headline.
READ THE GUIDE →How disclosure delays change a congressional trading backtest
A worked example shows why transaction dates and public availability produce different backtests, plus the assumptions to check before trusting a chart.
A congressional trading backtest can answer a different question from the one a reader has in mind. Starting on a politician’s transaction date measures a period that may begin before the public knew about the trade. To study a strategy based on public filings, the test needs to start from information available to that strategy.
The difference is easiest to see with one purchase. The numbers below are invented to isolate the timing issue. They are not Capitol Ledger performance results or evidence that following congressional trades is profitable.
One stock, two entry prices
A hypothetical purchase
A reported owner buys shares at $100. The filing becomes public later, when the stock is $120. At a subsequent measurement date the price is $126. Assume, purely for this example, that both entry prices are executable and there are no dividends or trading costs.
| Entry assumption | Entry price | Ending price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Original transaction | $100 | $126 | 26% |
| After public availability | $120 | $126 | 5% |
The calculations are $126 ÷ $100 − 1 and $126 ÷ $120 − 1. The gap is 21 percentage points. It comes entirely from the different entry assumptions.
If the price had fallen before publication, the later entry could instead produce a better result. Disclosure delays do not mechanically reduce every return. They change what could have been observed and acted on.
A filing date still needs an execution rule
A date without a time cannot prove the information was available before that day’s opening price. A realistic test needs to define what happens when a document appears after the market closes, on a weekend, or after a data collector’s last run.
For a monthly strategy, an eligible filing may wait until the next scheduled portfolio decision. Buying every newly disclosed stock immediately would test a different strategy. A useful comparison keeps the portfolio rules, cash flows and measurement period consistent while making the timing assumptions explicit.
What to inspect beside the return chart
The SEC’s Investor Bulletin on performance claims explains that backtested results are hypothetical. It also discusses costs and selective presentation of good periods. A large historical percentage needs enough context for a reader to understand the calculation.
For congressional models, inspect the historical availability records, missing filings and the rules used to handle amendments. Check how transaction ranges become model amounts. Ask whether the universe includes failed or delisted companies and whether the rules were chosen after inspecting the same results.
The benchmark also needs comparable dates, cash flows and dividend treatment. Costs, uninvested cash, position concentration and drawdowns help explain an experience that an ending value alone cannot describe. Our methodology overview identifies the distinctions behind Capitol Ledger’s public chart and newsletter.
Why follow a monthly update?
A backtest helps you examine a proposed process. A continuing monthly record lets you see which allocations and changes that process publishes over time. Neither guarantees a return in your account.
Capitol Ledger’s paid brief brings the current model allocation and recorded changes together with supporting files. That gives readers a regular reference for reviewing the model. The free edition previews three companies from disclosed House purchases; the illustrative newsletter shows how the paid material is organized.
More research
Educational research based on delayed public disclosures. Model allocations are not personalized investment advice. Hypothetical performance does not establish future returns.